An ‘Early Warning’ Risk Assessment Strategy to Enable Proactive Management of Supply Shortages in Canada
Abstract
Canada’s healthcare systems continue to experience multiple and lengthy supply chain disruptions, compounded by limited digital infrastructure and a lack of real-time visibility into risks of supply disruptions. Despite growing awareness of health supply vulnerabilities, there is no standardized tool currently to assess the risks of supply shortages for patients or the health workforce. This study introduces a healthcare supply risk assessment tool, co-designed through a national Community of Practice representing over 60 organizations across healthcare, industry and government. Using a participatory, evidence-informed co-design process, the risk assessment tool was developed to quantify both the probability of disruption and its impact on patient care, to enable proactive decision-making to mitigate risks to patients and the health system workforce. Pilot testing with eleven organizations demonstrated that the risk assessment tool enables prioritization of high-risk products, strengthens cross-sector collaboration and embeds risk intelligence into procurement decisions and supply management. The tool offers a scalable solution to enhance supply chain resilience, bridge gaps in data visibility and support health system modernization in Canada.